I’ve decided to start my blog again after entering the CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio challenge. I have $1m to invest, 90% in equities and 10% in currencies. I called my fund the Scorpio fund.
I signed up the week before last and invested in a few stocks. I choose a defensive portfolio because I think the US and UK consumer is still worried about the future and until they are more confident they will remain thrifty. My investment portfolio contained a mixture of consumer and non consumer stocks, industrial and technology.
Currently my portfolio contains:
1) McDonalds
2) WM Morrisons
3) 99 Cents stores
4) Nokia Oyj
5) Walmart.
I had AGCO the agriculture equipment manufacturer in the portfolio. I made a 9% return on this stock in a week and sold out.
My reasons for buying McDonalds, the US population love fast food and McDonalds are transforming themselves with a healthier image and this is paying off. The valuation is ok also. But in this market I think sentiment is important.
My reason for buying Morissons is that I like the turn around they have done in the last few years. They have a new CEO who seems on the ball. Their large format store’s always has good fresh food at very competitive prices. I spend a lot of time wandering around supermarkets and Morrisons impresses me the most compared with Tesco and Sainsburys.
The 99 cents store is a must during times of economic hardship. Consumers are flocking to the discount retailers.
Nokia is my turnaround story, having been beaten up the last few years by Apple and Samsung they are now more focused. They are launching 12 new handsets in the USA alone. They have cash on the balance sheet and if acquired they have billions of dollars worth of patents.
Who cannot like Walmart. They have such a presence globally and have the best procurement system available. I expect consumers to flock to Walmart for the Christmas etc.
The value of my equity portfolio has increased from 900k to 936k in 6 days. All my investments are in the black.
I’ve not made any more purchases this week but I’m considering a few. Citigroup is one I’ve been looking at.
With more negative economic news from Europe expected, I’m limiting my European exposure and looking at blue chip brands in the USA.
Bye for now
Tuesday, 8 November 2011
Saturday, 1 May 2010
Selling Out
This week has been exciting. The general election in the UK is entering its final stages and the country will go to the polls next week.
The Greek sovereign crisis is getting worse. Goldman Sachs is in the dock for a potential case of fraud.
Obama and his government are trying to get push new legislation through.
With all that uncertainty, its no wonder the markets have been very volatile. On Friday the global indexes sold off. Who knows what will happen next week.
The technical indicators are
On Wednesday I decided to sell out of most of my positions. I took profits on every stock and now have a cash balance of nearly £90,000.
Currently I’ve just over £29,000 invested.
I’m still at the top of the leader board with a lead of £4,000.
I’m not going to re invest this week as I think this volatility will continue.
The Greek sovereign crisis is getting worse. Goldman Sachs is in the dock for a potential case of fraud.
Obama and his government are trying to get push new legislation through.
With all that uncertainty, its no wonder the markets have been very volatile. On Friday the global indexes sold off. Who knows what will happen next week.
The technical indicators are
On Wednesday I decided to sell out of most of my positions. I took profits on every stock and now have a cash balance of nearly £90,000.
Currently I’ve just over £29,000 invested.
I’m still at the top of the leader board with a lead of £4,000.
I’m not going to re invest this week as I think this volatility will continue.
Sunday, 25 April 2010
Top of the leader board
Since my last post the markets have become increasingly volatile. The Greek crisis is back, Goldman and financial institutions are back under investigation and the UK economy expanded by 0.2% in the first quarter. The UK elections are on our door step and we may end up with a hung parliament.
This was half the expected rate. All this volatility etc has not affected my portfolio my positions are increasing in value.
Since the beginning of the competition two months ago I’m up 22%.
When profits are there take them and that’s what I’ve done. My cash position is back to 19k. I’ve halved my position at Astrazenaca, Ladbrooks, and SAB Miller.
The reason for selling out of these positions was because I wanted to release cash and take some profits when I had them. It took a while for Ladbrooks to turn profitable. I didn’t make much money but I got out with profits.
I sold SAB on the day of their results which was good as the stock continued to gain. Overall a 10% profit on SAB Miller.
My biggest performer is Royal Bank of Scotland. I first purchased shares at 35p now they are 55p and have broken through technical resistance on the upside. I might add to them, I need to analyse the charts, RSI and MACD first.
Other holdings that are performing well are Kingspan, and the retailers. The change in the weather will have positive affects. People love hitting the shops.
BG is still my laggared. Losing £300 quid on it. I won’t sell till its back in the black, but I will find an alternative commodities or oil and gas company to invest in if I can.
Overall I’m happy to be at the top of the leader board. Staying their will be the challenge.
This was half the expected rate. All this volatility etc has not affected my portfolio my positions are increasing in value.
Since the beginning of the competition two months ago I’m up 22%.
When profits are there take them and that’s what I’ve done. My cash position is back to 19k. I’ve halved my position at Astrazenaca, Ladbrooks, and SAB Miller.
The reason for selling out of these positions was because I wanted to release cash and take some profits when I had them. It took a while for Ladbrooks to turn profitable. I didn’t make much money but I got out with profits.
I sold SAB on the day of their results which was good as the stock continued to gain. Overall a 10% profit on SAB Miller.
My biggest performer is Royal Bank of Scotland. I first purchased shares at 35p now they are 55p and have broken through technical resistance on the upside. I might add to them, I need to analyse the charts, RSI and MACD first.
Other holdings that are performing well are Kingspan, and the retailers. The change in the weather will have positive affects. People love hitting the shops.
BG is still my laggared. Losing £300 quid on it. I won’t sell till its back in the black, but I will find an alternative commodities or oil and gas company to invest in if I can.
Overall I’m happy to be at the top of the leader board. Staying their will be the challenge.
Sunday, 4 April 2010
Timing and the decision to sell
Timing and the decision to sell
It’s been another good two weeks on the fantasy share trading game for the Cass MBA finance society.
The portfolio is now up 10% since I entered the competition. Pretty good and it’s out performing the FTSE 100 index which is my bench mark.
Since I last wrote I invested £10k in Astrazennaca. I did this because they have the biggest exposure to the US market of the UK pharmaceutical stocks.
The recent legislation change in the US should benefit them. But I’m now beginning to think, that upside benefit maybe after the competition has ended.
Unlike Ladbrokes, which had a few weeks of under performance, I knew the calendar was full of near term events to provide a catalyst to the share price, Cheltenham, World Cup and a new CEO.
My investment paid off and they are proving a good investment.
All the other stocks are in profits.
Now timing and the decision to sell:
The global recovery is back on track. US unemployment is stabilising, consumer confidence and retail sales are improving and factory output is increasing.
All good news, but the markets have run away with themselves to some extent. I guess I could be clever now and take some profits, but I think I will wait till the end of the month. I’m still sticking to the sell in May and go away principle.
I will convert a lot of stock into cash in May.
Near term I think I will sell my BG position and increase my position in Kingspan and RBS.
Retailing is also still interesting. An improvement in the weather will see a change in people’s mood and they will go shopping. It’s been too cold for people to take a day trip into the west end to go window shopping, but when the weather breaks I expect the people to go shopping and the stores to break out their new spring / summer wear which has been sitting in the stores waiting for the weather to break.
Timing is everything!
It’s been another good two weeks on the fantasy share trading game for the Cass MBA finance society.
The portfolio is now up 10% since I entered the competition. Pretty good and it’s out performing the FTSE 100 index which is my bench mark.
Since I last wrote I invested £10k in Astrazennaca. I did this because they have the biggest exposure to the US market of the UK pharmaceutical stocks.
The recent legislation change in the US should benefit them. But I’m now beginning to think, that upside benefit maybe after the competition has ended.
Unlike Ladbrokes, which had a few weeks of under performance, I knew the calendar was full of near term events to provide a catalyst to the share price, Cheltenham, World Cup and a new CEO.
My investment paid off and they are proving a good investment.
All the other stocks are in profits.
Now timing and the decision to sell:
The global recovery is back on track. US unemployment is stabilising, consumer confidence and retail sales are improving and factory output is increasing.
All good news, but the markets have run away with themselves to some extent. I guess I could be clever now and take some profits, but I think I will wait till the end of the month. I’m still sticking to the sell in May and go away principle.
I will convert a lot of stock into cash in May.
Near term I think I will sell my BG position and increase my position in Kingspan and RBS.
Retailing is also still interesting. An improvement in the weather will see a change in people’s mood and they will go shopping. It’s been too cold for people to take a day trip into the west end to go window shopping, but when the weather breaks I expect the people to go shopping and the stores to break out their new spring / summer wear which has been sitting in the stores waiting for the weather to break.
Timing is everything!
Sunday, 21 March 2010
Another good week
It was another good week on the fantasy MBA share trading competition.
My portfolio is now up over 8% since I started the game.
Economic news about the fall in unemployment supported the FTSE and as most of my portfolio is made up of FTSE 100 stocks this was good news for me.
There were also no bad news stories about my stock picks or any competitors.
On Friday good news from Lloyds was a real kicker for RBS.
The Cheltenham festival has been a dream for the bookies and I expect to make some money on Ladbroks.
It has taken some time for this stock to turn around but patience is a virtue.
This week I’m going to look again at the leisure industry and see if I can find value. Problem is some stocks I’ve identified are just too illiquid for this competition.
It’s good to see M&A activity coming back. This is great for short term trading.
Industrials and engineers are worth a second look.
Are stocks like IMI worth a punt, not sure, chart looks positive but they are trading on a high p/e.
Was down in the local Travis Perkins during the week and when I asked the employees who work in the yard were they busy, they said no.
Travis Perkins has done well recently; I think I will short them at 800p as I see resistance on the upside.
My portfolio is now up over 8% since I started the game.
Economic news about the fall in unemployment supported the FTSE and as most of my portfolio is made up of FTSE 100 stocks this was good news for me.
There were also no bad news stories about my stock picks or any competitors.
On Friday good news from Lloyds was a real kicker for RBS.
The Cheltenham festival has been a dream for the bookies and I expect to make some money on Ladbroks.
It has taken some time for this stock to turn around but patience is a virtue.
This week I’m going to look again at the leisure industry and see if I can find value. Problem is some stocks I’ve identified are just too illiquid for this competition.
It’s good to see M&A activity coming back. This is great for short term trading.
Industrials and engineers are worth a second look.
Are stocks like IMI worth a punt, not sure, chart looks positive but they are trading on a high p/e.
Was down in the local Travis Perkins during the week and when I asked the employees who work in the yard were they busy, they said no.
Travis Perkins has done well recently; I think I will short them at 800p as I see resistance on the upside.
Friday, 12 March 2010
A good week for my Cass fantasy stock portfolio
My Cass fantasy stock portfolio did well this week. Since I started the portfolio 22 days ago I’m up 6%. My gut feeling to buy some consumer electronics stock which I wrote about last week paid off. On Sunday/ Monday I bought £7,500 worth of Kesa the European electronics retailer at 117p, it closed the week at 123p. All the other stocks are performing well. WPP is running ahead and at a price of £630p I will to add to my holding.
I’ve added another £15,000 to my holding in Royal Bank of Scotland; this is my largest position with £41,000 invested in it.
The reason I bought into RBS again is that I think its going to break out on the chart. Technical analysis is always good for identifying resistance and support levels. After 40p the next level will be 43p-44p.
The one stock I’m waiting to turn around is Ladbrooks but Cheltenham and World cup betting have not started yet.
This week I’m going to have a quick look at Aga. They have moved back into the black and have had a good start to the year in terms of new orders. The only negative to buying Aga is that it is a small stock and illiquid. My strategy is to invest in larger stocks but if I think I have found value I will invest in it.
I’ve added another £15,000 to my holding in Royal Bank of Scotland; this is my largest position with £41,000 invested in it.
The reason I bought into RBS again is that I think its going to break out on the chart. Technical analysis is always good for identifying resistance and support levels. After 40p the next level will be 43p-44p.
The one stock I’m waiting to turn around is Ladbrooks but Cheltenham and World cup betting have not started yet.
This week I’m going to have a quick look at Aga. They have moved back into the black and have had a good start to the year in terms of new orders. The only negative to buying Aga is that it is a small stock and illiquid. My strategy is to invest in larger stocks but if I think I have found value I will invest in it.
Sunday, 7 March 2010
MBA Finance Society
The Cass MBA finance society’s fantasy share trading game runs from late February till late July.
As a member of the Cass MBA finance society I was fully committed to entering this competition when it started 2 weeks ago.
The time horizon is short. Just over 5 months and with the markets at 2 year highs future good news has been priced into the valuation of most of the stocks.
So I needed a strategy. I’ve £100,000 to play with. Bullbearings.com is the website we are using to track our progress.
A) What stocks, UK stocks only.
B) Economic data and short term outlook on the UK and global environment
C) What price should I buy or sell at.
I’ve picked a broad range of stocks and invested about £65,000 of the £100,000 and will invest about £95,000 in total, leaving £5,000 for any good punts.
I’m mostly focusing on large cap stocks because of the liquidity they provide.
I’ve invested in:
1) BG group, results were good recently and as the economy improves demand for gas will rise.
2) Debenhams: Very attractive dividend yield, possible expansion. And once the weather picks up I expect people to hit the shops for new summer clothes.
3) Kingspan: Good results, outlook stabilising. Low debt to equity ratio
4) Ladbrooks: Ok results, expensive on P/E but I expect people to gamble into the world cup.
5) WPP: Good results ,with world cup and improving economies global advertising spend will pick up
6) SAB Miller: If people go to the pub they will be buying some of SAB products and if people cannot afford to go to the boozer for the world cup they will buy booze in the supermarket.
7) Royal Bank of Scotland: Largest holding, good results, biggest restructuring play in Europe, I will buy on dips.
The economic outlook: Things are improving but there are dangers of a double dip. It is clear that central banks cannot just exit the quantitative easing initiatives they set up. The US economy is picking up, but has been no big employment gains, this maybe down to the fact it has been very cold etc. We need to see better employment numbers. House prices are still falling in certain locations.
Interest rates are very low and will most likely to continue to do so. An interest rate shock would be a disaster. Cutting the supply of funds now would certainly set the globe up for a double dip.
Inflation is still not threatening even though hundreds of billions have been pumped into the economies.
Italy will be next after Greece for Hedge funds to target. The strength of the euro should begin to slip against sterling and the dollar. The fringe European countries will lag France and Germany in growth keeping the euro under pressure.
Some serious unknown factors that threaten us all:
1) The loan books of the Chinese banks?
2) India, is it growing too fast?
3) Billions in commercial property loans are up for revaluation in the next 2 years. Who will refinance them?
4) Will government bond issues crowd out corporate bond new issues?
5) The US economy, can Obama push through medical reform in a weak economy and will we see a fundamental shift in consumer’s consumption. Will they buy less and save more?
I’ve not set a share price target for any of these stocks, but with the old “sell in May and go away and the World Cup coming up I expect some sectors to have less news flow. I’ve a 10-15% downside limit but on the upside I’m not restricting myself.
One area I may add is in consumer electronics, before the last World Cup Dixons had a spike in TV sales and now with HDTV I’m expecting them to have a similar spike in sales.
The commodities are in vogue now but I will stay out of these until I see a good investment opportunity.
As a member of the Cass MBA finance society I was fully committed to entering this competition when it started 2 weeks ago.
The time horizon is short. Just over 5 months and with the markets at 2 year highs future good news has been priced into the valuation of most of the stocks.
So I needed a strategy. I’ve £100,000 to play with. Bullbearings.com is the website we are using to track our progress.
A) What stocks, UK stocks only.
B) Economic data and short term outlook on the UK and global environment
C) What price should I buy or sell at.
I’ve picked a broad range of stocks and invested about £65,000 of the £100,000 and will invest about £95,000 in total, leaving £5,000 for any good punts.
I’m mostly focusing on large cap stocks because of the liquidity they provide.
I’ve invested in:
1) BG group, results were good recently and as the economy improves demand for gas will rise.
2) Debenhams: Very attractive dividend yield, possible expansion. And once the weather picks up I expect people to hit the shops for new summer clothes.
3) Kingspan: Good results, outlook stabilising. Low debt to equity ratio
4) Ladbrooks: Ok results, expensive on P/E but I expect people to gamble into the world cup.
5) WPP: Good results ,with world cup and improving economies global advertising spend will pick up
6) SAB Miller: If people go to the pub they will be buying some of SAB products and if people cannot afford to go to the boozer for the world cup they will buy booze in the supermarket.
7) Royal Bank of Scotland: Largest holding, good results, biggest restructuring play in Europe, I will buy on dips.
The economic outlook: Things are improving but there are dangers of a double dip. It is clear that central banks cannot just exit the quantitative easing initiatives they set up. The US economy is picking up, but has been no big employment gains, this maybe down to the fact it has been very cold etc. We need to see better employment numbers. House prices are still falling in certain locations.
Interest rates are very low and will most likely to continue to do so. An interest rate shock would be a disaster. Cutting the supply of funds now would certainly set the globe up for a double dip.
Inflation is still not threatening even though hundreds of billions have been pumped into the economies.
Italy will be next after Greece for Hedge funds to target. The strength of the euro should begin to slip against sterling and the dollar. The fringe European countries will lag France and Germany in growth keeping the euro under pressure.
Some serious unknown factors that threaten us all:
1) The loan books of the Chinese banks?
2) India, is it growing too fast?
3) Billions in commercial property loans are up for revaluation in the next 2 years. Who will refinance them?
4) Will government bond issues crowd out corporate bond new issues?
5) The US economy, can Obama push through medical reform in a weak economy and will we see a fundamental shift in consumer’s consumption. Will they buy less and save more?
I’ve not set a share price target for any of these stocks, but with the old “sell in May and go away and the World Cup coming up I expect some sectors to have less news flow. I’ve a 10-15% downside limit but on the upside I’m not restricting myself.
One area I may add is in consumer electronics, before the last World Cup Dixons had a spike in TV sales and now with HDTV I’m expecting them to have a similar spike in sales.
The commodities are in vogue now but I will stay out of these until I see a good investment opportunity.
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